DevelopmentHistory
TheMoore’sLaw,knownastheFirstLawofComputers,referstothenumberoftransistorsthatcanbeaccommodatedonanIC.Itdoublesapproximatelyevery18monthsanditsperformanceDoubled.Moore'sLawistheexperiencesummedupbyGordonMoore,thehonorarychairmanofIntel(GordonMoore),afterlong-termobservation.
In1965,GordonMoorepreparedareportonthedevelopmenttrendofcomputermemory.Hecompiledalistofobservations.Whenhestartedplottingthedata,hefoundanastonishingtrend.Eachnewchipcontainsroughlytwicethecapacityofitspredecessor,andthetimeforeachchiptobeproducediswithin18to24monthsaftertheproductionofthepreviouschip.Ifthistrendcontinues,thecomputingpowerwillberelativetothetimeperiod.Anexponentialrise.Moore'sobservationaldataisnowtheso-calledMoore'slaw,andthetrenddescribedhascontinuedtothisdayandisstillunusuallyaccurate.Peoplehavealsofoundthatthisappliesnotonlytothedescriptionofmemorychips,butalsotoaccuratelyillustratethedevelopmentofprocessorcapabilitiesanddiskdrivestoragecapacity.Thislawhasbecomethebasisforperformancepredictioninmanyindustries.
Tosumup,"Moore'sLaw"mainlyhasthefollowingthree"versions":
1.Thenumberofcircuitsintegratedonanintegratedcircuitchipisturnedoverevery18months.Something;
2,theperformanceofthemicroprocessordoublesevery18months,whilethepricedropsbyhalf;
3,thecomputerperformancethatcanbeboughtwithonedollar,Quadruplingevery18months.
Oftheabovestatements,thefirststatementisthemostcommon,andthesecondandthirdstatementsinvolvepricefactors,andtheiressenceisthesame.Althoughthethreestatementshavetheirownmerits,theyarecommoninonepoint,thatis,the"doubling"cycleis18months,andthe"doubling"(orquadrupling)is"thenumberofcircuitsintegratedonanintegratedcircuitchip."Whetheritistheentire"computerperformance"or"performancethatcanbeboughtforadollar"isamatterofopinion.
Proposingbackground
Asearlyas1959,Fairchild,afamousAmericansemiconductormanufacturer,firstintroducedplanartransistors,followedbyplanarintegratedcircuitsin1961.Thisplanarmanufacturingprocessusesaso-called"lithography"techniquetoformsemiconductorcircuitcomponents,suchasdiodes,triodes,resistors,andcapacitors,onaveryflatsiliconwafer.
Aslongastheaccuracyof"lithography"continuestoimprove,thedensityofcomponentswillalsoincreaseaccordingly,whichhasgreatpotentialfordevelopment.Therefore,theplanarprocessisconsideredtobethe"industrialbondoftheentiresemiconductor"andalsothetechnicalbasisfortheadventofMoore'sLaw.
Moore,thendirectorofFairchildSemiconductor’sresearchanddevelopmentlaboratoryin1965,wasinvitedtowriteanobservationandcommentreportforthe35thanniversaryspecialissueof"Electronics".Morecomponents".WhenMoorebegantoplotthedata,hefoundanastonishingtrend:eachnewchipcontainsroughlytwicethecapacityofitspredecessor,andeachchipisproducedwithin18-24monthsafterthepreviouschipwasproduced.
Ifthistrendcontinues,computingpowerwillincreaseexponentiallywithrespecttothetimeperiod.Moore'sobservationdataislaterMoore'sLaw,anditisstillunusuallyaccurate.
Peoplehavealsofoundthatthisappliesnotonlytothedescriptionofmemorychips,butalsotoaccuratelyillustratethedevelopmentofprocessorcapabilitiesanddiskdrivestoragecapacity.Thislawhasbecomethebasisforperformancepredictioninmanyindustries.In26years,thenumberoftransistorsonthechiphasincreasedbymorethan3200times,from2,300inthefirst4004launchedin1971to7.5millioninthePentiumIIprocessor.
Proposedcharacters
GordonMoore(GordonMoore,1929-):OneofthefoundersofIntelCorporation(Intel).
OnJanuary3,1929,GordonMoorewasborninPescardino,SanFrancisco,California.Myfatherdidn'tgotomuchschool.Hestartedtosupporthisfamilyattheageof17,andworkedasasmallofficial.Mymotheronlygraduatedfrommiddleschool.Aftergraduatingfromhighschool,heenteredthefamouschemistrymajorofBerkeley,California,andrealizedhisteenagedream.
In1950,Moorereceivedabachelor'sdegree,andthenhecontinuedhisstudies,obtainingadoctorateinphysicalchemistryin1954.
In1965,"Moore'sLaw"wasproposed.
Anotherwayofthinking
AlthoughMoore’sLawisnamedafterGordonMoore,it’snotthefirsttoputforwardtherelevantcontentofMoore’sLaw.Moore,butProfessorCarverMead(CarverMead)oftheCaliforniaInstituteofTechnology.
GordonMoore(3photos)
MeadwasthefirsttopayattentiontotheincreaseintheoutputoftransistorsandthelikeproposedbyMoore'sLaw,whichwillcauseitspricetofallPhenomenon.Meadpointedoutthatifthecomputerprocessingcapacityofagivenpricedoubleseverytwoyears,thenthepriceofcomputerprocessingdevicesatthispricewillbecutbyhalfoverthesameperiod.
Empiricalverification
Generalizedverification
In1975,therewerenearly65,000memorychipsinanewchargepreloaddevicememorychip.Components,consistentwithMoore’spredictionin1965.AccordingtostatisticspublishedbyIntel,thenumberoftransistorsonasinglechipincreasedfrom2,300onthe4004processorin1971to7.5milliononthePentiumIIprocessorin1997,anincreaseof3,200timesin26years.Accordingtotheforecastof"doublingeverytwoyears",thereshouldbe13doublingcyclesin26years.Aftereachcycle,thenumberofcomponentsintegratedonthechipshouldincreaseby2ntimes(0≤n≤12),sothe13thThenumberofcomponentsinacycle,thatis,26yearslater,isquiteclosetotheactualincreaseof3200times.
Factorverification
SomepeoplealsolookatMoore’sLawfromthethreemajorelementsofpersonalcomputers(PCs),microprocessorchips,semiconductormemory,andsystemsoftware.Thecorrectness.
Intermsofmicroprocessors,from8086and8088in1979to80286in1982,80386in1985,80486in1989,Pentiumin1993,PentiumProin1996,PentiumIIin1997,Thefunctionisgettingstrongerandthepriceisgettinglowerandlower,andeveryupdateisadirectresultofMoore'sLaw.Atthesametime,theinternalmemorycapacityofthePChasbeenexpandedfromtheearliest480kto8M,16M,whichismoreinlinewithMoore'sLaw.
Intermsofsystemsoftware,thescaleandfunctionsofsystemsoftwareweregreatlyrestrictedduetothelimitationofstoragecapacityinearlycomputers.AsthememorycapacityincreasesexponentiallyaccordingtoMoore’slaw,systemsoftwareisnolongerlimitedtoInasmallspace,thenumberoflinesofprogramcodecontainedinithasalsoincreasedsharply:thesourcecodeofBasicwasonly4,000linesin1975,andithasgrowntoabout500,000lines20yearslater.Microsoft'swordprocessingsoftwareWord,thefirsteditionin1982contained27,000linesofcode,whichincreasedtoapproximately2millionlines20yearslater.Someonedrewacurveofitsdevelopmentspeedandfoundthatthegrowthrateofthesoftware'sscaleandcomplexityevenexceededMoore'sLaw.Thedevelopmentofsystemsoftwareinturnhasincreasedthedemandforprocessorsandmemorychips,therebystimulatingthefasterdevelopmentofintegratedcircuits.
Moore'sLawisnotalawofmathematicsorphysics,butananalysisandpredictionofdevelopmenttrends.Therefore,whetheritisitstextualexpressionorquantitativecalculation,acertainmarginshouldbeallowed.Inthissense,Moore’spredictionisaccurateandcommendable,soitisrecognizedbytheindustryandhasahugeresponse.
Amendmentandevolution
Amendment
In1975,MooresubmittedapaperattheIEEEAnnualConferenceoftheInternationalTelecommunicationUnion.Accordingtotheactualsituationatthetime,Thegrowthrateof"densityonceayear"wasre-examinedandrevised.AccordingtoMoorehimselfinaninterviewwithaneditorof"ScientificAmerican"inSeptember1997,hechanged"doublingeveryyear"to"doublingeverytwoyears."Infact,thelatermoreaccuratetimeistheaverageofthetwo:18months.
Evolution
Moore’ssecondlaw:Inthe30yearssinceMoore’slawwasputforward,theperformanceofintegratedcircuitchipshasindeedbeengreatlyimproved;butontheotherhand,Intelexecutivesbegantonoticethecorrespondingincreaseinthecostofchipproductionplants.In1995,IntelChairmanRobertNoyceforesawthatMoore'sLawwouldbeconstrainedbyeconomicfactors.Inthesameyear,Moorewroteinthe"Economist"magazine:"Whatworriesmethemostistheincreaseincost,...,thisisanotherexponentialcurve."HisstatementiscalledMoore'ssecondlaw.
NewMoore'sLaw:Theterm"NewMoore'sLaw"appearedinChineseITprofessionalmedia,referringtotheincreasingspeedofthenumberofInternethostsandthenumberofInternetusersinChina.Itdoublesabouteverysixmonths.Andexpertspredictthatthistrendwillcontinueinthenextfewyears.
Meaningintroduction
"Moore'sLaw"summarizesthespeedofinformationtechnologyprogress.Inthe50yearssinceMoore’sLawwasapplied,computershavechangedfromamysteriousandindispensablebehemothtoanindispensabletoolformostpeople.Informationtechnologyhasenteredcountlessordinaryhouseholdsfromlaboratories,theInternethasconnectedtheworld,andmultimediaaudio-visualequipmenthasbeenenriched.Everyone’slife.
Becauseoftheuniquenessofhigh-puritysilicon,thehighertheintegrationlevel,thecheaperthetransistorprice,whichleadstotheeconomicbenefitsofMoore'sLaw.Intheearly1960s,atransistorcostabout$10,butastransistorsgetsmallerandsmaller,until1,000transistorscanbeplacedonasinglehair,thepriceofeachtransistorisonlyonethousandthofacent..Accordingtorelevantstatistics,atthepriceof100,000multiplications,theIBM704computercosts1U.S.dollars,andtheIBM709dropsto20cents.Inthemid-1960s,theIBM360systemcomputerdevelopedbyIBMatacostof5billionhasbecome3.5cents.
"Moore'sLaw"hasfar-reachingsignificancetotheentireworld.Whenreviewingtheprogressofthesemiconductorchipindustryoverthepast40yearsandlookingforwardtoitsfuture,informationtechnologyexpertsbelievethat"Moore'sLaw"maystillapplyinthefuture.Butastransistorcircuitsgraduallyapproachtheirperformancelimits,thislawwilleventuallycometoanend.Formorethan40years,theintegrationtrendofsemiconductorchips,asMoorepredicted,haspromotedthedevelopmentoftheentireinformationtechnologyindustry,andhasbroughtchangestothelivesofthousandsofhouseholds.
Developmentprospects
Morethan40yearshavepassedsinceMoore'sLawcameout.Peoplearenotwithoutsurprisetoseethatthelevelofsemiconductorchipmanufacturingtechnologyisimprovingatadizzyingspeed.Intel'smicroprocessorchipPentium4hasaclockspeedofupto2GHz.In2011,achipcontaining1billiontransistorsandcapableofexecuting100billioninstructionspersecondwaslaunched.Whetherthisspeedofdevelopmentwillcontinueindefinitelyisaquestionthatpeoplethinkabout.
Fromatechnicalpointofview,asthecircuitdensityonthesiliconchipincreases,itscomplexityanderrorratewillalsoincreaseexponentially,anditwillalsomakecomprehensiveandthoroughchiptestingalmostimpossible.Oncethewidthofthelinesonthechipreachestheorderofnanometers(10^-9meters),itisequivalenttothesizeofonlyafewmolecules.Inthiscase,thephysicalandchemicalpropertiesofthematerialwillundergoqualitativechanges,resultinginsemiconductordevicesusingcurrenttechnology.Ifitcan'tworknormally,Moore'sLawwillcometoanend.
Fromaneconomicpointofview,asstatedinMoore’sSecondLaw,whenachipfactoryisbuiltatUS$2toUS$3billion,thelinesizewillsoartoUS$10billionwhenthelinesizeisreducedto0.1micron,whichismorethantheinvestmentofanuclearpowerplant.It'sstillbig.Sincethemoneycannotbespent,moreandmorecompanieshavewithdrawnfromthechipindustry.
PhysicistMichioKaku(MichioKaku)isaprofessoroftheoreticalphysicsattheCityUniversityofNewYork.Inaninterviewin2012,hesaidthatMoore'sLawisgraduallymovingafter47yearsofdominatingthechipindustry.collapse.Thiswillhaveamajorimpactoncomputerprocessing.Inthenexttenyearsorso,Moore'sLawwillcollapse.Standardsiliconmaterialtechnologyalonecannotmaintainrapidexponentialgrowthincomputingpower.
KalaiMichiosaidthatthetwomaincausesofthefailureofMoore'sLawarehightemperatureandelectricleakage.Thisisalsothereasonfortheendoflifeofsiliconmaterials.MichioKalaisaidthatthisisverydifferentfromwhatscientistsinitiallypredictedthedeclineofMoore'sLaw.ScientistsshouldbeabletocontinuetotapthepotentialofsiliconcomponentstomaintainthevitalityofMoore'sLawinthenextfewyears;butafter3Dchipsandothertechnologieshaveexhaustedtheirpotential,theywillreachtheirlimits.
ScientistsinvariousfieldsandindustryanalystshavepredictedthefailureofMoore'sLaw.However,theresearchersalsoproposedthatthecontinuousadvancementofchipstructureandcomponentsmakesMoore'slawstillvalid.EvenIntel,whichiscalled"builtonMoore'sLaw",announcedthatasnewtransistorsusingnanowiresandothertechnologiesgraduallyreplacetraditionalsemiconductortransistors,"Moore'sLaw",whichhasenteredthe"uncle"level,willnotcontinuetolead.Thepaceofdevelopmentofelectronicequipment.
BasedonthissituationofMoore'sLaw,theindustryhasproposed"More-Than-Moore"(MTMforshort,thatis,"beyondMoore'sLaw"),tryingtomaintainthedevelopmenttrendofMoore'sLawinmoreways,AndfromMoore'sLawof"moreandfaster"toMTM's"betterandmorecomprehensive".Moore'sLawisproposedandverifiedinthedevelopmentofLogicandMemoryintegratedcircuits,whileMTMisapplicabletomoretypesofintegratedcircuits,suchasAnalog,RF,ImageSensor,EmbeddedDRAM,EmbeddedFLASH,MEMS,HighVoltage,etc.,Bychangingthebasictransistorstructure(SOI,FIN-FET),compatibleprocessesofvarioustypesofcircuits,advancedpackaging(wafer-levelpackaging,SiP,3Dmulti-chippackaging)andothertechnologies,sothatasystem-levelchipcansupportmoreandmoreThefunctioncanalsoreducethecostofthechipandimprovetheequivalentintegrationofthecircuit.
Breakthroughresearch
OnOctober28,2012,scientistsfromtheIBMResearchInstituteannouncedthatthenewlydevelopedcarbonnanotubechipconformstothe"Moore'sLaw"cycle.AccordingtoMoore'sLaw,thecomputerTheintegrationofthechipdoublesevery18monthsandthepriceishalved.Traditionaltransistorsaremadeofsilicon.However,since2011,silicontransistorshaveapproachedtheatomiclevelandreachedthephysicallimit.Duetothenaturalpropertiesofthismaterial,itisdifficultforsilicontransistorstoachievebreakthroughdevelopmentsintheiroperatingspeedandperformance.
IBMresearchershaveplacedmorethan10,000carbonnanotransistorsonasiliconchip.Theelectronsofcarbonnanotransistorsrunfasterthansilicondevices.Theyarealsothemostidealstructurefortransistors.Theseexcellentperformancewillbecomethereasonforthereplacementofsilicontransistors.Atthesametime,combinedwiththenewchipdesignarchitecture,thefuturewillenablemicro-levelchipstorealizecomputerinnovation.
Researchershavefoundthatelectronsareeasilydrawnintotheairaftertheyaretrappedintoasemiconductorwithalayerofoxideormetalattheinterface.Theelectronshiddenattheinterfacewillformalayerofcharge.Moreover,theCoulombrepulsionbetweenthechargedparticlesinsidetheelectronlayerwillalsomaketheelectronseasilyreleasedfromthesilicon.Byapplyingasmallamountofvoltage,theyeffectivelyextractedelectronsfromthesiliconstructure,andthenplacedtheelectronsintheair,allowingthemtotravelinnano-scalechannelswithoutencounteringanycollisionsoroccurrences.Scattering.
Biologicalapplications
Moore'slawsometimesappliestogreentechnologyproducts.Forexample,considertheDNAsequencer—oneofthecoretoolsofgreentechnology.In1977,FredSangertooktheleadinsequencingacompleteviralgenomecontainingfivethousandbasepairs;andtwenty-fiveyearslater,peoplewereThehumangenomewassequenced.TheoutputofbasepairsfollowsMoore'sLaw,butthecostofsequencingisnot.Thecostofsequencingthehumangenomefarexceedsthatoftheviralgenome.Theexistingsequencercanbedescribedasaningeniouswork,butitiscumbersomeandexpensive.TheyusewetchemistrytoprocessDNAmoleculesinbatches.Thecostofchemicalreagentsisasexpensiveasthemachine.Whatbiologynowneedsissingle-moleculesequencing,thatis,processingonemoleculeatatimeandsequencingusingphysicalratherthanchemicalmethods.Inventingthismachineisthebusinessofphysicists,whousegraytechnologytosupportgreentechnology.Thosewhoinventthismachineandmakeitworkreliablywillmakeamajorcontributiontobiology.
Single-moleculesequencerscanbemuchfasterandcheaperthanexistingsequencers.Itmaybeassmallandagileasanexistinglaptopcomputer.ItcanprocessDNAmoleculesasquicklyasaDNApolymerasethatconvertssinglestrandsintodoublestrands,andreadbasesintocomputermemoryatarateofonethousandpairspersecond.Atthisspeed,asinglemachinecanreadacompletehumangenomewithinamonth.Withalotofhardworkandalittleluck,wewillcontinuetoimprovethesingle-moleculesequencer,sothatthescopeofapplicationofMoore'sLawcanbeexpandedintothefuture-everytenyears,thesequencingspeedwillbeincreasedbyonehundredtimes,andtheequipmentcostwillbereducedbyonehundredtimes.Forgreentechnology,thiswillWhatdoesitmean?Uptonow,wehavesequencedthegenomesofmorethan100species(mostofwhicharemicroorganisms),andmeasuredatotalofabout10billionbasepairs.Thebiosphereofourplanetcontainsabouttenmillionspecies,andtheirgenomescontainabouttentrillionbasepairsintotal.Expressedinthelanguageofcomputerscience,thegenomesofallspeciesontheplanetadduptomillionsofgigabytesofdata.Thisdatabaseisbasicallythesamesizeassomeotherexistingdatabases.Wealreadyknowhowtostoreandsearchadatabaseofthissize.Butbeforethesegenomescanbesequenced,thebiospheremustbeexploredandthespecieswithinitmustbedetermined.IfMoore'sLawisstillvalidwhenappliedtoDNAsequencing,wecancompletetheDNAsequencingoftheentirebiosphereinaboutthirtyyears,andthecostwillnotbemuchhigherthanthesequencingofthehumangenome.TheBiosphereGenomeProjectwillgiveusanin-depthunderstandingofthebiosphere,justastheHumanGenomeProjecthasgivenusanin-depthunderstandingofhumanbiology.Whetheritisforunderstandingthebiosphereorprotectingthebiosphere,thesequencingofthousandsofspecieswillbeagoodstart.Ifweunderstandwhatisinthebiosphere,wewillhaveagreaterchancetoprotectit.